contagion: the movie
It feels like a lot longer ago than a week ago that I was in Palm Springs staying at a trendy hotel and goofing around with cars on a racetrack all day to celebrate International Women’s Day.
The friend I took with me last weekend came over for dinner tonight for a much more subdued experience. She’s at a higher risk than other people our age because a bike crash a few years ago left her in hospital with a collapsed lung and multiple bouts of pneumonia. Like me, her boyfriend is working elsewhere right now (mine’s in Vegas and coming home early next week; hers is in Michigan and planning a return at the end of the month).
We kept it low-key, ate turkey meatballs I whipped up, drank wine, and watched Contagion on Netflix. Contagion has been trending for more than a week, of course, so we hopped on the band wagon. I’m not sure how I feel about it. I was in Toronto during SARS and working as a journalist, so it was clear that the movie was loosely based on that Coronavirus outbreak. So it isn’t prophetic or anything. But, seriously: the first hour of the movie felt like a documentary of our times. Or a news broadcast. Here’s hoping the sketch bit in the middle where the world goes all apocalyptic before things get better doesn’t actually materialize here in the USA.
However, I’m losing optimism. That apocalypse is playing out in Italy at the moment. Social media channels are ringing with first-hand accounts from doctors of overflowing beds and medical professionals being forced to choose between patients. I’m hearing that if you’re over 80 and you go to hospital right now in Italy, you’re not getting treated. There is too much competition for care from younger, healthier people who have longer lives to live.
And this is in Italy. With a developed public health system. What’s it going to be like here in the USA where people avoid going to the doctor because it’s too expensive?
The news is explaining what they’re trying to do. Containment seems to be off the table and now it’s about “flattening the curve.” So, basically: 70-80% of us are going to become infected. The aim here is now just to spread out the cases over time so that the need for medical care doesn’t exceed the system’s capacity at any given moment. It reduces mortality. Not illness or infections.
This graphic, from NPR, represents the issue.
The orange is the curve of the virus if left unchecked. The blue is what we hope for if we put all kinds of protective measures in. The dotted line is the medical system’s capacity. Italy is in fully raging orange right now.
The Formula 1 Grand Prix in Melbourne didn’t run at all — fans or no fans — after one of the members of the McLaren team came back positive. The team announced Thursday it had withdrawn from the race. The next day Mercedes withdrew, and then finally the race was called just before the first practice. Apparently the paddock got the final vote and they tied.
I have friends who were in St. Petersburg this week for the IndyCar race there. It’s been back-and-forth, and back-and-forth. I think they had decided to go the same route as the F1 GP, which was to run without fans, but when the decision came through from Melbourne, the die was cast. They finally called it off and they’re all coming home.
In other news, Donald Trump took the test and it came back negative. (Yet Tom Hanks and Idris Elba are positive? Where’s the justice in this crazy world?)